Sunday, March 22, 2020

Seven Years of Abundance and Seven Years of Famine

Back in 2011, I was having severe depression. My health wasn't well, and I was under tremendous stress of losing my job and not able to provide for my family. The company I worked for went bankrupt and was bought over. You could read about my story here:
As the dark episode ended, I started afresh with a new job in a new industry in January 2012. For reason beyond my understanding, my Lord seemed to put a voice within me to meditate and observe the story of Joseph in Genesis 41. It was about the dream that Pharaoh's had and Joseph was given the ability to interpret it. God foretold Pharaoh's through his dream about seven years of great abundance that were to come, followed by seven years of great famine. Long story short, God gave Joseph not only the understanding about the dream, but also the wisdom to overcome the famine.

"Let Pharaoh appoint commissioners over the land to take a fifth of the harvest of Egypt during the seven years of abundance. They should collect all the food of these good years that are coming and store up the grain under the authority of Pharaoh, to be kept in the cities for food. This food should be held in reserve for the country, to be used during the seven years of famine that will come upon Egypt, so that the country may not be ruined by the famine." - Genesis 41:34-36.

If you have been reading my blog, you should know that I have been keeping aside some money from my monthly salary to build my investment portfolio a.k.a Yaruzi's portfolio. I used "a fifth" as a guide, though I didn't strictly follow it like a law. Some months I saved more and some months I saved less, but overall I think I save more than 20% of my income.

The bull market has been ravaging ferociously and honestly even until very recently, I didn't expect for the "famine" to suddenly come. As the covid-19 spread globally, it put an abrupt end to this long bull market. As panic and fear gripped the market, within a very short period, the equity markets globally lost 30% or more of their value.

Learning from the wisdom and revelation given to Joseph during the famine, these are the few principles I'll follow to overcome the difficult time.
  • Keep aside some cash and have it ready to be exchanged during the famine. I have faithfully done this the past 7 years and will continue to do so as long as I have my job as the source of income. In Joseph's time, it was grain. I believe in this age, it will be cash or cash equivalent.
  • Have patience and holding power. "Seven years of great abundance are coming throughout the land of Egypt, but seven years of famine will follow them. Then all the abundance in Egypt will be forgotten, and the famine will ravage the land. The abundance in the land will not be remembered, because the famine that follows it will be so severe." - Genesis 41:29-31. As God is merciful to the world, I strongly believe that the covid-19 crisis will be significantly shortened, hence the impact to the world economy will be limited. I really don't think it will last for 7 years. Instead these verses taught me the wisdom to have patience and holding power, as the recovery will take time. I have been buying quite a few in March, but the verse serve as a good reminder for me to phase my buying slowly because the abundance of the 11 years bull market would likely have to be erased first before the new bull market starts again.
  • There will be transfer of wealth. "Joseph collected all the money that was to be found in Egypt and Canaan in payment for the grain they were buying, and he brought it to Pharaoh’s palace." - Genesis 47:14. "So they brought their livestock to Joseph, and he gave them food in exchange for their horses, their sheep and goats, their cattle and donkeys..." - Genesis 47:17. "So Joseph bought all the land in Egypt for Pharaoh..." - Genesis 47:20.
  • The wealth is not meant to satisfy my materialistic wants. It was meant to preserve the apple of God's eye (the nation of Israel) and the gentiles (the Egyptians, who later enslaved Israel). Why does God bother to preserve the world? I believe the answer is because He always loves the world. So if you're the blessed ones, be kind and generous to your neighbour, who may fall into hardship. "For God so loved the world that he gave his one and only Son, that whoever believes in him shall not perish but have eternal life." - John 3:16.
I pray that God's blessing and protection is always upon us. Stay safe and be joyful, your salvation is near.

Sunday, March 1, 2020

February 2020 - Yaruzi's Portfolio Update

What a roller coaster month we had in February. I was up about $14,000 on 7th February and I gave that gains and almost all my 2019 gain back by the end of the month. As the fear of COVID-19 started to spread around the world, the global stock market started to discount the economic impact of the virus. Real business impact will start to show in the Q1-2020 financial reports, and I expect the market to further adjust the overly-optimistic valuation of public listed companies.

Despite the bloodshed in the market, there were many heart warming moments when we saw many little act of kindness and the selfless sacrifices by medical personnels around the world against COVID-19. In Singapore, we're also blessed by the prompt and effective responses of the Singapore Government that contained the spread of the virus rather quickly.

For my friends, readers, and fellow Singaporean, please let me pray God's blessing of protections from Psalm 91:

"He who dwells in the secret place of the Most High
Shall abide under the shadow of the Almighty.
I will say of the Lord, “He is my refuge and my fortress;
My God, in Him I will trust.”
Surely He shall deliver you from the snare of the fowler

And from the perilous pestilence.
He shall cover you with His feathers,

And under His wings you shall take refuge;

His truth shall be your shield and buckler.
You shall not be afraid of the terror by night,

Nor of the arrow that flies by day,
Nor of the pestilence that walks in darkness,

Nor of the destruction that lays waste at noonday.
A thousand may fall at your side,

And ten thousand at your right hand;

But it shall not come near you."

As the market corrected, I nibbled the shares of some companies I have been eyeing for a while now.

6-Feb-2020Raffles Medical Group LtdBuySGD9,000.00001.03009,270.00
7-Feb-2020Raffles Medical Group LtdBuySGD9,000.00001.02009,180.00
24-Feb-2020Unilever IndonesiaBuyIDR11,000.00007,325.000080,575,000.00
28-Feb-2020Indofood CBP Sukses MakmurBuyIDR8,000.000010,150.000081,200,000.00
28-Feb-2020Hanjaya Mandala SampoernaBuyIDR50,000.00001,655.000082,750,000.00
28-Feb-2020Gudang GaramBuyIDR2,000.000050,500.0000101,000,000.00
28-Feb-2020Unilever IndonesiaBuyIDR12,000.00006,725.000080,700,000.00
28-Feb-2020Kalbe FarmaBuyIDR66,000.00001,215.000080,190,000.00

Total portfolio value dropped to $875,928.42 despite $30,000 fresh fund injections. Return YTD was -4.31%, XIRR YTD -23.95%, and XIRR since inception was on all time low of 2.80%. Equity allocation was at 58.24% with the rest in short term bonds and cash, which I will utilize as war chest when market trades lower. I received a total dividends of $165.36 for the month.

DateSecurities NameFCYSGD
28-Feb-2020Capitaland Mall Trust130.62 130.62
28-Feb-2020Capitaland Commercial Trust34.74 34.74

Link to Yaruzi's low cost portfolio as of February 2020

Monday, February 10, 2020

January 2020 - Yaruzi's Portfolio Update

I received a sad news from a close family friend in January, two weeks before Chinese New Year. Our dear friends lost their beloved and only son due to sickness. While I believe wholeheartedly that their son is in a better place now with the loving Lord, I knew it wouldn't be easy to both parents. It'd been a roller coaster for the family as their son went through a few cycle of getting better and worse during the treatment. As friends, my wife and I could only offer our sincere prayer and support during their difficult time. We prayed that our dear friends would continue to receive strength to keep their faith.

In January, I sold Telstra Corporation Limited, making a little profit of 1.57% (CAGR 0.73%) inclusive of dividends after holding for 2 years and 2 months. The reason for selling was to rebalance my portfolio to the telecommunication sector. I also made 2 purchases below.

13-Jan-2020Ace Hardware Indonesia TbkBuyIDR62,000.00001,465.000090,830,000.00

I contributed a fresh fund of $5,000 and ended up the month with a total portfolio of $885,804.47. Return YTD was 0.05%, XIRR YTD was 0.6%, and XIRR since inception was 4.51%. Equity allocation was 54.65%, and I received total dividends of $1,142 from Singtel.

DateSecurities NameFCYSGD
10-Jan-2020Singtel1,142.40 1,142.40

Link to Yaruzi's low cost portfolio as of January 2020

Friday, January 3, 2020

December 2019 - Yaruzi's Portfolio Update

Honestly, I wasn't expecting 2019 to be a good year when it started. But hey, the rally in December seemed to lift everything up. My portfolio ended the year with a rather decent result. YTD return of 5.04%, XIRR YTD of 5.97% and XIRR since inception of 4.63%. I received $13,464 in dividends and made $42,266.89 in profits. Total portfolio at the end of 2019 was $880,357.44, about $120,000 shy of the $1M mark.

I made no transaction in December and was receiving $1,776.97 in dividends. Equity allocation stood at 54.13% and the remaining 45.87% in short term bond and money market.

DateSecurities NameFCYSGD
3-Dec-2019Takeda Pharmaceutical52,781.00 658.87
17-Dec-2019First REIT887.95 887.95
20-Dec-2019Royal Dutch Shell PLC-B130.79 230.15

While if feels good growing our investment assets, there are still people around us that are not so fortunate and may require our help. Friends, if you come across them, please do lend a helping hand. Last, but not least, I wish everyone a Happy New Year and a great 2020. 

Link to Yaruzi's low cost portfolio as of December 2019

Sunday, December 22, 2019

November 2019 - Yaruzi's Portfolio Update

Portfolio return YTD dipped to 3.52% at the end of November, likewise XIRR YTD dipped to 4.74% and XIRR since inception dipped to 4.22%. Total portfolio increased to $862,421.64, after an additional cash contribution of $10,000.

I did a couple of purchase in November, increasing my holdings in Indonesian tobacco companies and ComfortDelgro. I also sold all my Daimler AG holdings at EUR 52.85, above my average purchase price of EUR 47.0155. It gave me a total profit of $2,404.02 (CAGR 11.24%), including dividends received over the years. I sold because I'm rather concerned about the level of debt that Daimler had and it's worsening cash flow, which raised the question if it's future dividend would be sustainable. It also had a new CEO after the previous CEO, Dieter Zetche, retired in May. I was just not too sure yet if the new CEO had what it took to make Daimler a healthier company.

1-Nov-2019Hanjaya Mandala SampoernaBuyIDR47,000.00002,130.0000100,110,000.00
7-Nov-2019Gudang GaramBuyIDR1,900.000053,000.0000100,700,000.00

In November, I received total dividends of $128.52 from Capitaland Mall Trust. This brought up total dividends YTD to $11,687.21 or about $973.93 per month.

DateSecurities NameFCYSGD
29-Nov-2019Capitaland Mall Trust128.52 128.52 

Time flew fast and we're at the end of 2019. It felt like it's just started. While we may enjoy investing and see our portfolio grow, I think our life is too short for not spending our time with our love ones. "For God so loved the world that He gave His only begotten Son, that whoever believes in Him should not perish but have everlasting life." - John 6:13 NKJV and His beloved Son's Name is Jesus, the Christ.

I wish all of my blogosphere friends, a Very Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year 2020! God loves you and bless you, my friends ...

Link to Yaruzi's low cost portfolio as of November 2019